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INNOVATECONNECTTRANSFORM
EXECUTIVE REAL-ESTATE INSIGHTNº 08
ASSET MANAGEMENTSYSTEMS THINKINGCRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
SELECTED FOR PUBLICATION · FRIDAY 23 OCTOBER 2026
GRID ACCESSDATA CENTRESTENANT RISK

The grid datedecides whether the tenant stays

Microsoft has ended its agreement at Nscale's Loughton data centre, reportedly because grid power is not expected before the 2030s. The site had planning permission and a named tenant, and it lacked a date.

BY KINGKOF OPOKU-OHEMENG3 MIN READFRI. 23 OCTOBER 2026
Loughton had planning permission and a tenant. The reported grid date is years after the planned opening.KPL GRAPHIC · DATA: REUTERS, THE REGISTER, DATA CENTRE REVIEW
THE STRATEGIC SIGNAL

A consent and a lease are promises about a building. The grid date decides whether the tenant is still there to pay for it.

2030s
when grid officials reportedly expect to supply power, for a site planned to open in 2027
50 MW
the planned capacity at Loughton, expandable to 90 MW
73%
of Nscale's 2025 revenue came from its largest customer, and 52% in the first half of 2026
£712,500
per MW, the top of Ofgem's proposed commitment fee range for large data centres, from £237,500
01/ 06
01 / 06THE DEVELOPMENT

The anchor tenant leaves a consented site

RThe Telegraph reported on 18 October 2026 that Microsoft had ended its agreement to anchor Nscale's planned data centre at Loughton, Essex. Microsoft said the decision relates to a single site and that it remains committed to the partnership. Grid officials had told Nscale they did not expect to supply power before the 2030s1. The site was due to open in 20272.

RThe plan was 23,040 Nvidia GB300 chips in a 50 MW building, expandable to 90 MW2. Planning permissions were secured3. Nscale says it remains committed to Loughton, is exploring alternative power, and that the grid problem does not affect its other contracts2.

02/ 06
02 / 06THE KEY ISSUE

A connection date acts as the term of the lease

RUK Power Networks told The Register it cannot discuss individual connections, and that many data centres able to connect to its network are awaiting works on the national transmission network, which it does not own2. Microsoft has not given its reasons itself, and a person familiar told Reuters that Loughton was a small part of its Nscale agreements1.

CNscale's US filing shows how such dates reach the lease. Certain customer contracts give the customer a right to terminate for delays, and Anthropic may terminate a tranche without liability if delivery timelines are missed. The filing also warns that delays in securing grid connections may occur4.

03/ 06
03 / 06STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

Value the site as an option on power

AA planning permission fixes what may be built. A tenant's right to leave over delay fixes who carries the cost of waiting. Until the network gives a firm date, consented land is an option on a future connection, and its value depends on when that date falls and what the owner pays to hold the land meanwhile.

AFour tests decide the price: the network's date against the tenant's longstop date, who bears delay, whether on-site power can bridge the gap and at what cost, and what the land is worth to another user.

FIGURE 01 · THE POWER DATE TEST
ENERGISATION DATEThe network's date in writing, never an assumption. Prices the timing.
LONGSTOP AND EXITThe date after which the tenant may leave, and what it pays. Prices the income.
BRIDGE POWEROn-site supply while the grid is late, and who funds it. Prices the wait.
ALTERNATIVE USEWhat the land is worth if the tenant goes. Prices the floor.
AKPL framework. A site that passes the planning test and fails these four holds an option, and the price should say so.
04/ 06
04 / 06OUR PERSPECTIVE

Ask for the date before the lease

ALandowners with consented sites should obtain the network's written date before they sign, and set the tenant's longstop beyond it or share the delay. Lenders should size debt on the date and treat the consent as a precondition. An operator with several sites can absorb the loss of one, and a single site cannot. Demand follows for independent reviews of connection programmes, delay clauses in leases and bridge power plans.

OUR PERSPECTIVE

A consent says what may be built. The grid date says when it can earn.

05/ 06
05 / 06RISKS AND REGULATION

What would prove this wrong

RMicrosoft has said only that the decision concerns one site. The cancellation terms are unknown, and Nscale has named neither a replacement tenant nor a revised date12. If the exit proves commercial, or a bridge supply restores the timetable, the grid is a smaller part of the story.

COfgem proposed on 29 July 2026 a commitment fee of £237,500 to £712,500 per MW for large data centre connections, paid on accepting an offer and refunded at energisation. The consultation has closed and a decision is awaited5.

IIf the fee thins the queue, dates at paying projects could move forward. That depends on a decision not yet made.

06/ 06
06 / 06WHAT TO WATCH

The proof points

MilestoneWho decidesStatus
An amended filing that discloses the Loughton change4NscaleDate not set
A replacement tenant or power route for Loughton2NscaleDate not set
Any network statement on the Loughton connection date2UK Power NetworksDate not set
The decision on the data centre commitment fee5OfgemDate not set
BOTTOM LINE

Get the grid date in writing before you price the site.

Test the network's date against the tenant's longstop, find out who bears delay, cost the bridge power, and know what the land is worth to another user. A site without those answers holds an option, and the price should say so.

EVIDENCE BOUNDARY

CConfirmed

  • That customer contracts at Nscale can give the customer a right to terminate for delays, and that Anthropic may terminate a tranche without liability if delivery timelines are missed (Nscale Form S-1)
  • Nscale's largest customer share of revenue, and the filing's warning on grid connection delays
  • Ofgem's proposed commitment fee and the status of its consultation

RReported

  • Microsoft's exit, its statement that the decision relates to a single site, and the grid officials' 2030s supply date (Reuters, 19 October 2026)
  • Nscale's statements and UK Power Networks' comments on the transmission network (The Register, 19 October 2026)
  • Planning permissions secured and the 50 MW to 90 MW capacity (Data Centre Review, 14 July 2026)

AKPL analysis

  • That consented land without a firm grid date is an option on power, and should be valued as one
  • The four step power date test

IInference

  • That a bridge supply, a commercial dispute or an Ofgem decision could change the date and weaken the argument. All depend on events not yet happened.
SOURCES AND EVIDENCE
03Data Centre ReviewNscale's £2bn Essex data centre hit by grid delaysNews14 July 2026
04US Securities and Exchange CommissionNSCALE Ltd, Form S-1 registration statementPrimaryFiled 18 September 2026

Every source above is cited in the text by its number. Paragraphs marked A or I are KIS PLUS LTD analysis or inference.

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