BLACK STAR PI LTD logo
BLACK STAR PI LTD
ACQUIREOPTIMISEMULTIPLY
EXECUTIVE REAL-ESTATE INSIGHTNº 07
KPL PROPERTY VENTURESSTRATEGIC PROPERTY INVESTMENT
SELECTED FOR PUBLICATION · FRIDAY 16 OCTOBER 2026
CAPITAL MARKETSDATA CENTRESCOUNTERPARTY CREDIT

One tenantsets the price of AI property

DayOne's US listing filing puts numbers on what sits behind booked capacity: one customer, exits on payment and floating rate debt. Firmus has just shown what investors do when the price asked is too high.

BY KINGKOF OPOKU-OHEMENG3 MIN READFRI. 16 OCTOBER 2026
Most of the revenue comes from one customer, and fewer than half of the booked megawatts were paying rent on 20 September 2026.KPL GRAPHIC · DATA: DAYONE DATA CENTERS FORM F-1, US SEC, FILED 5 OCTOBER 2026
THE STRATEGIC SIGNAL

Booked capacity is demand. The rent behind it is one tenant's credit, for as long as that tenant stays.

69.4%
of DayOne's 2025 revenue came from its largest customer
953 MW
billing, against 2,281 MW of bookings at 20 September 2026
10 to 15 years
the usual customer contract, with early termination allowed on payment of costs and penalties
21.0%
of floating rate long term borrowings covered by interest rate swaps
01/ 06
01 / 06THE DEVELOPMENT

A listing filing shows what bookings are made of

CDayOne Data Centers filed a Form F-1 with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on 5 October 2026. Its price range and offering size are blank, and no amendment had followed at the time of writing1. At 20 September 2026 it had 2,281 MW of bookings under legally binding contracts, of which 953 MW was billing and 1,328 MW had yet to start1.

CCustomer agreements mostly run 10 to 15 years with five year renewal options, and every customer contract allows early termination on payment of specified costs and penalties1.

02/ 06
02 / 06THE KEY ISSUE

One tenant carries the income

CThe largest customer, a global short-form video platform, supplied 69.4% of 2025 revenue and 69.2% of the first half of 2026. The second supplied 12.3% and 15.1%1. Counterparties are typically local affiliates of those customers, and some guarantees come from other affiliates with limited or no recourse if the local affiliate defaults1.

CThe costs run the other way. DayOne has unconditional purchase commitments of US$4,937.3 million for development and estimates US$11.4 billion to complete its bookings1. Substantially all of its long term debt is floating rate, and swaps cover 21.0% of it1.

03/ 06
03 / 06STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

A long lease is worth the tenant's credit

AThe asset is a powered building, and the income is a contract with an affiliate. A ten year term that the tenant can leave on a published payment is worth that tenant's credit plus the exit payment, and no more. A valuer who capitalises the headline term overstates the exit.

RMarkets have begun to charge for this. Firmus, an Australian data centre operator, withdrew its ASX listing on Friday 9 October after an offer at A$11 a share drew too little demand23. The Telegraph reports that CoreWeave high yield bonds fell from 85 cents to a record low of 77 cents that week, with yields up to 17%3.

FIGURE 01 · THE CREDIT TEST
BILLINGCapacity already paying rent, never capacity booked. Prices the income.
TERM AND EXITContract length and the payment to leave. Prices the duration.
TENANTWho signs, and whether a parent stands behind them. Prices the risk.
DEBTFloating or fixed, and the cost of refinancing. Prices the equity.
AKPL framework. A valuation that stops at booked megawatts has priced demand and left the tenant out.
04/ 06
04 / 06OUR PERSPECTIVE

Price the tenant before the megawatt

ABuyers and lenders should split booked capacity into what bills today and what has yet to start, then discount each for the tenant that pays and the exit that tenant holds. Developers with one anchor customer should expect to be asked for the guarantee, the termination payment and the interest rate hedge before they are asked for a price. Operators with a spread of customers and fixed rate debt hold the stronger case. Demand follows for counterparty reviews, termination analysis and independent checks of billing against bookings.

OUR PERSPECTIVE

Booked capacity is a promise to build. Billing capacity is the rent.

05/ 06
05 / 06RISKS AND REGULATION

What would prove this wrong

RFirmus asked for a valuation of about A$44 billion, against about A$15 billion in August2. That gap may explain its result better than anything in its contracts, so one withdrawal is a data point and no verdict.

IIf DayOne lists at a strong price, or its largest customer guarantees its contracts, the argument weakens. Termination rights may also prove sticky in practice, because a tenant that has built its service in a building has little reason to leave. Both depend on events not yet happened.

06/ 06
06 / 06WHAT TO WATCH

The proof points

MilestoneWho decidesStatus
An amended filing with a price range, or a deferral1DayOne and its underwritersDate not set
Termination terms and customer guarantees in a final prospectus1DayOneAt pricing
Where Firmus raises its next capital2FirmusDate not set
CoreWeave bond prices and yields3Credit marketsDaily
BOTTOM LINE

Booked is a promise. Billing is the rent.

Split capacity into what pays and what is promised, test the tenant and the exit, then read the debt. A valuation that skips those steps has priced demand and little else.

EVIDENCE BOUNDARY

CConfirmed

  • Bookings, billing and backlog, customer shares of revenue, contract terms, counterparties, purchase commitments, cost to complete and debt terms, from DayOne's Form F-1
  • The filing date, and that no amendment with a price range had followed at the time of writing

RReported

  • Firmus's withdrawal of its ASX listing on Friday 9 October and the A$11 offer (Forbes Australia, 13 October 2026; The Telegraph, 15 October 2026)
  • CoreWeave bond prices and yields (The Telegraph, 15 October 2026)

ABlack Star PI analysis

  • That a long lease with an exit on payment is worth the tenant's credit and the exit price
  • The four step credit test and the advice to split booked from billing capacity

IInference

  • That DayOne may still list successfully, or its largest customer may guarantee its contracts, which would weaken the argument. Both depend on events not yet happened.
SOURCES AND EVIDENCE
01US Securities and Exchange CommissionDayOne Data Centers Ltd., Form F-1 registration statementPrimaryFiled 5 October 2026
03The Telegraph, via AOLCollapse of a £20bn data centre deal unnerves AI investorsNews15 October 2026

Every source above is cited in the text by its number. Paragraphs marked A or I are BLACK STAR PI LTD analysis or inference.

CONNECT WITH BLACK STAR PI

Test the tenant and the exit before you price the asset.

Black Star PI Ltd provides creative and strategic property investment and acquisition, run with the same discipline as KIS PLUS LTD.

Start a conversation