The ten-year waitbelongs in the land price

COn 29 September, the government announced Great British Grid, a publicly owned body within Great British Energy, to work with NESO and Ofgem on connections reform and to remove more than 300 GW of speculative capacity from the queue¹. Self-build connections and wider tendering of transmission are proposals, and the long-term budget is left to a future spending review¹.

COfgem recorded demand connection applications rising from 41 GW in November 2024 to 125 GW by June 2025, with data centres accounting for most of it². Its proposed remedy is a commitment fee of £237,500 to £712,500 per megawatt, refunded at energisation and forfeited on early exit, plus milestones for financial and commercial maturity².

RACRE Slough's roughly £570m data centre at Pinewood Nurseries would run on an on-site gas energy centre until a permanent connection arrives, which its application anticipates could take at least ten years³. Bloomberg also reported that Nscale's £2bn Loughton site, planned for 2027, may not have its 90 MW connection until the early to mid 2030s³. Nscale has explored fuel cells as interim power⁵.

RThe planning record shows an outline application for up to 40,500 square metres of data centre and a 5,000 square metre energy centre, received on 14 August, with comments closing on 9 October and a target decision of 4 December⁴.

RClearing speculative applications improves the odds for projects that remain, and self-build connections may shorten the wiring. Commentators observe that generation and network capacity stay open questions, and that how Great British Grid fits with Ofgem, NESO and the incumbents is yet to be set out⁶.

AFor value, the gap that matters sits between a site's opening date and its firm connection date. Gas covers that gap only if it wins planning and an environmental permit, satisfies nearby residents and keeps a purpose once the grid arrives. Each step costs time or money, and the cost lands on the owner, developer or lender, outside the price of land sold as powered.

ALenders and buyers should ask for the connection date in writing and value the bridge as a project of its own. Sites with a firm date, a consented bridge and a plan for the engines afterwards earn a premium. Sites with an application and an assumption earn a discount that grows with every year of wait. Demand follows for independent bridge reviews, permit tracking and valuations that model decommissioning.

OUR PERSPECTIVE

Reform moves the queue. The site still owns its wait.

IIf Great British Grid and Ofgem's milestones release firm connection dates well inside a decade, bridges shrink to short stopgaps and the discount fades. If planning authorities refuse gas-led schemes, land bought for its grid claim is stranded. The Pinewood decision, targeted for 4 December, is an early test of both⁴.